28 Jun, 2024

Is Solana ETF Approval Imminent? Analysts Weigh In on Market Impact

The recent speculation surrounding Solana’s potential for an exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval has stirred significant debate in the crypto community. A new report from GSR posits that the endorsement of a Solana ETF could substantially elevate the asset's value. This conjecture emerges amidst contrasting viewpoints from industry insiders and crypto market analysts, highlighting the complexity of predicting regulatory outcomes in the volatile crypto sphere.

The Optimistic Outlook for a Solana ETF

The GSR report underscores the transformative potential of a Solana ETF, particularly under a Trump administration, which has shown increased openness toward cryptocurrency. According to Jamie Coutts of GSR, the regulatory landscape is evolving favorably, citing recent bipartisan legislative actions that have dismantled restrictive SEC policies and introduced supportive crypto legislation. Coutts argues that this shift could pave the way for a Solana ETF, projecting significant inflows and a substantial price increase for SOL.

Historical Comparisons and Market Projections

The report draws parallels with Bitcoin’s trajectory following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which saw its price surge by a factor of 2.3. Given Solana's smaller market cap relative to Bitcoin, GSR outlines three potential scenarios for SOL's price increase post-ETF approval. In a bearish scenario, where Solana's investment product assets under management (AUM) are only 2% of Bitcoin's, a 1.4x price increase is anticipated. The base case scenario suggests a 3.4x price increase, while the blue-sky scenario predicts an 8.9x increase, considering Solana's historical relative inflows to Bitcoin.

The report also highlights Solana’s strong decentralization metrics and robust demand indicators, suggesting that the asset is well-positioned for ETF approval. With its market cap averaging just 4% of Bitcoin’s over the past year, GSR anticipates that even in the most conservative scenario, Solana’s price could see a notable rise.

Skepticism from Industry Leaders

Despite this optimistic outlook, not all industry experts are convinced. Wintermute CEO Evgeny Gaevoy has expressed skepticism, citing a “near zero chance” of a Solana ETF being approved this year. Gaevoy argues that expectations of regulatory changes under a Trump administration are delusional and emphasizes that even recently approved Ethereum ETFs may struggle to attract significant inflows. He believes that the demand for a Solana ETF is currently insufficient to justify its approval, noting that the adoption of new financial instruments in the crypto market takes time.

Bloomberg’s Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas and crypto lawyer Jake Chervinsky have echoed these sentiments, suggesting that while regulatory changes could eventually facilitate the approval of a Solana ETF, the timeline remains uncertain. Chervinsky points to the lack of a futures market for SOL as a potential barrier to approval.

Divergent Views and Market Implications

The divergence in perspectives underscores the uncertainty surrounding Solana’s potential for an ETF. While some in the crypto community remain bullish, pointing to the trading premium of the Grayscale Solana Trust as evidence of demand, others caution against premature optimism. Pseudonymous crypto researcher Kwaker Oats argues that the applications for a Solana ETF signal underlying demand, even if approval is not immediately forthcoming.

Ultimately, the potential approval of a Solana ETF could significantly impact SOL's price, with estimates suggesting increases ranging from a modest doubling to an explosive 8.9x rise. As the debate continues, market participants and stakeholders will closely watch for regulatory developments and shifts in market sentiment that could herald a new era for Solana and the broader crypto ecosystem.

01 Jul, 2024

Paxos Receives Full Approval From Singapore’s Central Bank to Issue Stablecoins

Quick TakePaxos’ Singapore entity, Paxos Digital Singapore Pte. LTD., will now be allowed to offer “digital payment token services” as a major payments institution, the stablecoin issuer said. Paxos also announced on Monday that it was partnering with Singapore-based DBS Bank for cash management needs and to custody stablecoin reserves. Paxos receives full approval from Singapore's central bank to issue stablecoins, partners with DBS BankPaxos received approval from Singapore's central bank to offer certain services that will ultimately allow the firm to issue stablecoins that are compliant with the country's stablecoin framework.Paxos' Singapore entity, Paxos Digital Singapore Pte. LTD., will be allowed to offer "digital payment token services" as a major payments institution, the stablecoin issuer said in a statement on Monday. “Stablecoins issued in accordance with standards set by a regulator like MAS [Monetary Authority of Singapore] – known for its rigorous regulatory standards – represent a significant step towards democratizing access to commerce and financial services," said Walter Hessert, head of strategy at Paxos. "Receiving approval from MAS is an important step for Paxos and our global enterprise partners to safely offer access to US dollars to more users around the world.”Paxos is authorized to issue stablecoins in the U.S., United Arab Emirates and now Singapore, the firm said. So far, 19 firms engaging in cryptocurrency services or digital payment token services have the MPI license from Singapore, including Paxos, Blockchain.com, Circle and Coinbase. To obtain an MPI license, firms have to have a base capital of $250,000 Singapore dollars as well as a "permanent place of business or a registered office" in Singapore, among other criteria, according to the central bank's website. Paxos also announced on Monday that it was partnering with Singapore-based DBS Bank for cash management needs and to custody stablecoin reserves. "This partnership further expands DBS’ wide-ranging involvement across the digital asset ecosystem, of which we have been a pioneer and innovator for several years now," said Evy Theunis, head of digital assets at DBS Bank's institutional banking group. DBS has been active in the crypto industry for years. The bank launched a fiat-to-crypto exchange in 2020 and later partnered with decentralized gaming virtual world Sandbox to create a metaverse experience.

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26 Jun, 2024

Ripple to Launch U.S. Dollar Stablecoin

Crypto startup Ripple is the latest major player to jump into the $150 billion stablecoin market with the launch of a digital currency pegged to the U.S. dollar.The stablecoin will always be backed 1-to-1 by an equivalent sum of assets — U.S. dollar deposits, U.S. government bonds and cash equivalents — that the company holds in reserve, according to Ripple.The crypto firm said its reserves would be accounted for in publicly available monthly attestation reports. It did not say which firm will audit.Ripple is first launching its stablecoin in the U.S., but didn’t rule out offering additional regional products in non-U.S. markets, like Europe and Asia.The move would pit Ripple against stablecoin giants like Tether, which is behind the largest stablecoin USDT, and USDC issuer Circle.Payments giant PayPal, meanwhile, launched its own U.S. dollar stablecoin called PayPal USD, a stablecoin backed by U.S. dollars and dollar equivalents that is issued by crypto firm Paxos.But Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said he’s not deterred by the competition. “This market will look different [in future], certainly based on size,” he told CNBC in an interview this week.Why Ripple’s launching a stablecoinGarlinghouse said the company decided to introduce a stablecoin to the market last year in response to the “depegging” of rival firms Tether’s USDT token and Circle’s USDC.USDT temporarily lost its $1 peg in 2022 amid market instability resulting from the collapse of terraUSD, a popular so-called algorithmic stablecoin.USDC also temporarily slipped below $1 in 2023 after revealing exposure to the collapsed tech-focused lender Silicon Valley Bank.Some critics dispute the source of Tether’s reserves, and have doubts about whether company is sufficiently capitalized to survive a “bank run.”For its part, Tether says its token is fully backed by quality reserves and has always been able to meet withdrawals, even in times of distress.Garlinghouse said there’s “some uncertainty” about the current market leader among U.S. regulators, without disclosing a name. He argued that Ripple is a regulated institution with licenses in New York, Ireland and Singapore, among other countries.Tether is the world’s largest stablecoin issuer, with a market capitalization of $106.3 billion, according to CoinGecko data.Asked about Ripple’s move to launch a stablecoin and Garlinghouse’s comments, a Tether spokesperson told CNBC: “We wish Ripple’s team would have more success with their new stablecoin than they had so far.”Tether is registered with FinCEN, the U.S. financial crimes watchdog, which is not the same as being regulated. The business is required to submit suspicious transaction reports and reports for deals totalling more than $10,000.Not giving up on XRPA Ripple stablecoin would also serve a purpose the crypto giant touts as part of its On-Demand Liquidity product, which aims to settle transactions rapidly between banks and other financial firms using the XRP token as a “bridge” currency.Ripple has faced obstacles in finding a use case for Ripple with banks and payment firms.Santander initially wanted to use XRP for cross-border payments, but chose not to after finding Ripple wasn’t active in enough markets yet to support its needs.MoneyGram ended a partnership to use XRP for cross-border transfers after citing increased costs associated with the need for partnerships with exchanges and other necessary counterparties in local markets.Garlinghouse insisted that Ripple hasn’t given up on XRP as a payment token and that stablecoins would serve as more of a complementary product for the XRP ecosystem.“We’ve been using stablecoins in our payment flows for years,” he said. “This is not a new thing for us.”He added that other so-called Layer 1 protocols — blockchain networks with their own tokens — have launched stablecoins and logged growth in overall volume and liquidity.“Our view is, having pools of liquidity that are native to the XRP ledger, they complement and help grow the XRP ecosystem,” Garlinghouse told CNBC. “In fact, the number one request we get from the XRP community is to launch a USD-backed stablecoin on the XRP Ledger.”XRP is up around 13% in the last 12 months, according to CoinGecko data, and is currently trading at about 57 cents.Expecting SEC settlement in the ‘millions’The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in 2020 hit Ripple with a lawsuit, claiming the company illegally sold XRP to investors when it should have registered the transactions with the regulator.A court judge recently ruled XRP is not in and of itself a security, but said that sales to institutions should be counted as unlawful securities sales.The blockchain company sold $728.9 million worth of its XRP token to hedge funds and other sophisticated buyers, according to the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.The SEC is seeking $2 billion from Ripple as part of its lawsuit.Garlinghouse said that what the SEC is asking for is unreasonable, as it only pertains to the $728.9 million of XRP the company sold to institutions.He expects the total settlement to be a fraction of that in the “millions,” rather than in the billions, of dollars.The SEC was not immediately available for comment.

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