06 Nov, 2024

Crypto’s Regulatory Headwind Has Turned Into a Tailwind Following Trump’s Victory

Quick Take

① Analysts at Bernstein said that crypto’s regulatory headwind had turned into a tailwind following Donald Trump’s election victory.

② The analysts also reiterated their call for bitcoin to approach $90,000 by the end of this year and reach a bull cycle target of $200,000 in 2025.

Crypto's regulatory headwind has turned into a tailwind following Trump's victory

Following Donald Trump’s win in the U.S. presidential election, analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein said that crypto’s regulatory headwind had now turned into a tailwind — and the market is “nowhere close to factoring in this shift.”

The analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, told clients in a Wednesday note they expect a new “crypto-friendly” Securities and Exchange Commission Chair and Senate Banking Committee to accelerate regulatory clarity for the industry. Under current Chair Gary Gensler, the SEC has embarked on several legal battles with key players, including Coinbase, Binance, Kraken and Robinhood, as well as against DeFi, NFT and stablecoin projects.

The crypto industry seeks new rules on defining digital assets as something other than securities, the applicability of broker/dealer laws to crypto exchanges and DeFi, accelerated approvals for investment products like ETFs and enabling banks to own and custody crypto, Chhugani noted.

In particular, the analysts predict faster progress on stablecoin and market structure bills, positively impacting stablecoin issuers such as Circle and Paxos and U.S crypto exchanges. They expect progress on other crypto rules and definitions over the medium term, leading to a re-rating of broader crypto assets outside of bitcoin and ether, which have been “suppressed due to regulatory overhang and lack of clarity on [their] security status.”

Trump’s newfound pro-crypto stance put forward many policy promises during the campaign, including firing Gensler on “day one,” turning the U.S. into a bitcoin mining "powerhouse" and creating a national strategic bitcoin reserve, which the analysts also expect the new administration to make positive steps toward.

The Republicans are also set to pull off a sweep of the presidency, House and Senate, with Trump winning the popular vote, to the surprise of many. “The crypto super PACs were instrumental in sending crypto friendly representatives to the Senate and the House. We expect a new regime of crypto rule making and this transformational shift is not priced in,” the analysts said.

Bitcoin to reach $90,000 by year-end, $200,000 in 2025

The total crypto market cap breached $2.5 trillion as news of the election result became clear, Chhugani noted. Bitcoin hit a new all-time high above $75,000 earlier on election night and is currently trading for $73,815, according to Bitcoin Price Page — up 7% over the past 24 hours. DeFi tokens such as Aave and Uniswap posted double-digit gains, alongside positive pre-market and early trading activity for crypto-related stocks like Coinbase and MicroStrategy on Wednesday.

The analysts warned that the market’s initial reaction might be to “sell the news” but suggested any such dip was a buying opportunity for crypto and related stocks, reiterating their call for bitcoin to move closer to $90,000 by the end of this year, and reach a bull cycle target of $200,000 by the end of 2025 under the president-elect.

Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies.

08 Nov, 2024

Detroit Leads U.S. in Crypto Tax Payments, Trump’s Pro-Crypto Stance May Inspire More Cities

The recent rally in Bitcoin, spurred by the optimism following Donald Trump's election, signals a new era of cryptocurrency adoption in the United States. Many analysts predict a 40% price increase for Bitcoin, with Trump's pro-crypto stance offering hope for less restrictive regulatory measures and a more favorable market environment. As Bitcoin and other digital currencies soar in popularity, U.S. cities like Detroit are making bold moves to integrate crypto into everyday financial systems.Detroit is set to become the largest U.S. city to accept cryptocurrency for tax payments, municipal fees, and services. This pioneering decision, which will roll out in mid-2025, is seen as a critical step in the broader adoption of blockchain technology by local governments. Mayor Mike Duggan highlighted the initiative’s potential to empower both residents and entrepreneurs, fostering financial inclusion in the process.Trump’s Pro-Crypto Policies Spark Nationwide MomentumTrump’s election has breathed new life into the cryptocurrency market, with his outspoken support for Bitcoin and digital assets influencing both the financial community and local government policies. His pro-crypto policies are expected to lead to more favorable regulations, spurring cities to embrace blockchain technology for various applications, including public services. Analysts have long predicted that this regulatory shift could push Bitcoin’s price to new heights, fueling optimism in markets across the U.S.As the largest city in Michigan, Detroit’s decision to accept crypto payments signals the start of a significant trend in the U.S. This move is part of a broader push to modernize city services by incorporating digital currencies, a step that aligns with the goals of improving transparency and accessibility. With the PayPal crypto platform ensuring secure transactions and easy conversion to U.S. dollars, Detroit’s new system aims to streamline payment processes for both crypto holders and traditional users.A Growing Trend of Cryptocurrency Adoption by U.S. CitiesDetroit is not alone in its interest in crypto payments. Other U.S. cities are also watching closely as blockchain technology begins to reshape how local governments handle payments. Cities like Miami and smaller towns such as Williston, North Dakota, have already implemented crypto payment systems for services like utility bills and town service fees. Meanwhile, other cities are exploring blockchain solutions for everything from property taxes to licensing fees.As more local governments follow Detroit’s lead, cryptocurrency could soon become a standard payment method for municipal services across the U.S. The increasing acceptance of digital currencies is poised to enhance financial inclusion, particularly for unbanked populations, and streamline payment systems across the country.Future of Cryptocurrency Payments in the U.S.The trend toward crypto payments in the U.S. is just beginning, with more cities likely to join the movement in the coming years. As Trump’s pro-crypto policies continue to encourage innovation and technological advancement, it’s clear that digital currencies are here to stay, offering new opportunities for governments and residents alike. The Detroit initiative is likely to set the stage for other cities considering similar systems, making it a key moment in the evolution of public finance and cryptocurrency adoption.

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